Domestic Heating Market 2020

Goal of the study on behalf of the Federal Heat-pump Association was, to quantitatively assess the space heating market until the year 2020, considering the Austrian energy- and climate-protection goals with special emphasis on the role of the heat-pump in the future energy-mix. The outcome is a simulation-model that analyzes the market in 72 segments (partitioned as age of construction, size, energy carrier etc.) and describes the future development for the achievement of Austrian climate protection goals by means of various parameters like energy carrier, sales-figures, demolition-, renovation- and new development ratios, etc.

These calculations, along with a detailed market analysis, require a method of appraisal for (switching-) habits of decision-makers. Therefore the method of “user transition prognosis” was introduced. Here, for every market-segment and all relevant energy carriers, certain possibilities were determined, regarding their possible range of use within a full thermal building renovation or boiler-exchange. Out of this analysis which was conducted in several timeframes, a “Business as Usual” and a “Climate Protection”-scenario for the domestic heating market 2020 were calculated.

The outcome of these calculations shows high growth of market share for heat-pumps within the next years, due to high comfort and high consumer acceptance. Moreover a high core potential exists in small scale domestic housing market as well as significant potential in the area of non-domestic large scale buildings.

It has to be taken into account that the heat-pump- more than any other energy system- benefits from a high thermal quality of new or renovated buildings. Moreover it makes sense to form coalitions with other renewal energy carriers to enlarge the market for the heat-pump. With that in mind, a sustainable and dedicated medium and long term scenario for climate protection should always be a joint-scenario of all renewable energy technologies.

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